Derek Willis and Louisville recruiting

Derek Willis, the Bullitt East High School forward, is set to announce his college decision tomorrow afternoon, and those behind the scenes are indicating he will choose UK (though there are rumors of Louisville making "a late push" for what that's worth in recruiting parlance).

Because it's a "head to head" battle for a player between Cal and Pitino, Willis' announcement will get a lot of attention. And it is a pretty interesting story. Willis was once committed to Purdue and his father famously commented that he didn't trust Calipari or Pitino. But after he de-committed, Derek and family decided to give both schools another look and not surprisingly it was Calipari who was first able to repair his image in the eyes of the Williseses'(?).

So what does it mean? First and foremost, it's a disappointment to lose out on a talented forward. Derek Willis would seem to fit into Pitino's system even moreso than Cal's (think Swop but bigger and better), and with Rakeem Buckles' uncertain future, there will be minutes to be had in the post. This almost feels like when Cal offered an 11th hour scholly to Elisha Justice, or called Chane Behanan on his way to his Louisville visit, as if he wants Willis because he doesn't want the Cards to have him. But Cal's motivations are neither here nor there.

I expect some will describe this as another "epic failure" by Rick Pitino on the recruiting trail. But in this instance it will be vastly overstated. While it may be true that Willis is local and his father occasionally wears UofL gear in public, it's clear that Derek Willis was never very high on Rick Pitino's wish list or he would have gone after him more heavily the first time around and never allowed pops to get such a negative impression of him straight out of the gate. Pitino and Co. threw the UofL hat in the ring after Willis' de-committment no doubt, but it's a fallacy to pretend that Rick Pitino is missing out on a sure-fire prospect that he had been pursuing heavily for years.

In fact, while being local is thought to be a boon for many recruits, I think Willis' proximity to some of the dysfunction and disappointment of recent seasons could be a negative. Until this dark cloud passes, I think Louisville will have better recruiting success in the great "out there". Like Anton Gill, the Top 50 player on board from North Carolina or Jarrell Martin, the power forward from Louisiana who recently said he was "blown away" by UofL.

These players are far enough from the smoke and fire to see the Louisville program more clearly right now in terms of history, tradition, Hall of Fame coach, stellar facilities, etc. The 2013 recruiting class is all-important, and I won't pretend that I wouldn't welcome a player with Derek Willis' talents, but the class will not be made or broken wherever Willis lands.