Deja vu all over again; Cards fall 69-62

I'm too spent to break it down right now. These games are emotional rollercoasters; I vacillate wildly between pride in my team and anger towards them on a minute to minute basis.

Congrats to UK. Truly the better team and honestly, it's not very close.

It was a game that barely resembled basketball for long stretches it was so disjointed. These games follow the same script year after year. Ugly, ugly basketball where UK slowly exerts its dominance, UofL fights back with one run in them, then folds the moment they reach the plateau.

Rick Pitino will try to shrug this one off; Big East is all what really matters, he will say. He's wrong. It matters. We're getting owned in this rivalry, now three years counting and we show zero sign being able to change the dynamic.

None of our players are improving; none seem to be able to handle this pressure. If they can't handle this pressure, why should we have any confidence they can make a run in the tournament?

Wondering if Rick Pitino needs to go to pasture is becoming the annual post-script to this game; and once again, I don't think it's a preposterous question. He's about to hit the podium and will trot out the usual rigamarole. UofL fans are so very sick of that. 

Other than that, what more is there to say? If anyone sees Peyton Siva or Kyle Kuric, please let know that the game started at noon, EST. May be there was a time zone confusion, I dunno, they seem to have missed it.

Congrats to UK, and congrats to Russ Smith, the only Louisville player who can be truly proud of his performance.

The rest of the team was scared, awkward, and rattled. That is to say, expected. And that's what matters.

Callin' it

Unlike almost every other game of the season, I think this one will be won or lost in the first ten minutes. I keep thinking back to last year's rout, when the Cards came out hesitant and flat and the game was essentially over before Louisville was able to get its bearings. I keep wondering how this year will be different.

I do not expect the Cardinals to become some fluid and efficient offensive machine overnight that calmly scores on its first five possessions. The players will be tight, like last year, the rim will seem to be sealed shut, like last year, and there will be some agonizingly close in-and-outs or misses around the basket, like last year.

What is different, is that this seaason Louisville can more than hold its own fighting on the boards. Last season the glasswork was a bloodbath; 35 to 23 and UK pulled down 13 offensive boards to our 7. The Cards leading rebounder was Chris Smith with 6. Ball game, no other statistic was nearly as relavant.

Gorgui only logged 12 minutes in that contest. Buckles missed it with an 11th hour injury and Chane was worrying about who he was going to take to prom. Louisville's personnel for competing on the glass has been upgraded significantly. If the Cards can get a perimeter player, say Chris Smith or Kyle Kuric to chip in with 6+ boards, Louisville will hold its own on the glass.

Even so, however, walking out of Rupp with a victory will take a supreme effort. Recently T-Will was asked on twitter if he thought UofL could win and he said, "Yes, but it'll take a perfect game". I don't know if they have to be perfect, but they'll have to be much sharper for 40 minutes than any outing we've seen this year. Field goal % needs to go up by about 8 points and free throws need to be made at least at their current average of 73%. The Cards need to make the extra pass in the halfcourt; they will not beat UK playing one on one.

All this needs to be done while playing bulldog-rabid defense (without fouling) in one of the most hostile environments imaginable. Easy enough?

Last year, afterwards, I wrote that Louisville was scared of UK. It hurt to write, but it was true. I do not believe this season will be the same. Despite Louisville's flaws, they play with a fierce desire to win. Guys like Gorgui, Chane, and Russ Smith are fearless basketball players, the kind unlikely to be so awed by UK's talent that they forget about their own.

If the Cards weather the first 10 minutes, if they battle the boards to a draw, they stand an excellent chance of scoring the upset. Louisville should be playing with a chip on its shoulder; they're coming off a heartbreaking loss, not a single pundit nationally or locally is giving them a chance, and UK's players seem to be taking the Cards about as seriously as Apollo Creed took Rocky in Rocky I.

There's a wonderful moment in sports when an underdog can have a seachange in mentality. A light bulb goes off and their body language seems to scream "Fuck these guys, they got nothin'". I'll be watching and hoping for that moment in the first ten minutes.

73-69 Cards. Player of the game? Gorgui Dieng.

Beat UK.

Louisville vs. Kentucky: Time To Go To War

The most exciting, agonizing, heated, intense day of the year is upon us. 

Man your battle stations.

Go Cards. BEAT KENTUCKY.

(If you haven't yet watched the video series below chronicling the rivalry, please do. It is excellent. Got me fired up.)

Enemy Dossier: Doron Lamb

NAME: Lamb, Doron AKA Smooth Criminal

HOMETOWN: Queens, NY

SIZE & STATS: 6'4'' 210lbs (15.8 ppg, 3.8 reb, .491% from 3)

CARDINAL COUNTERPART: Chris Smith

POSITION ADVANTAGE: UK

MR. RED'S TAKE: John Jenkins. Will Barton. Antwaine Wiggins. Markel Starks. The list of sharpshooters the Cards have been unable to slow this season is long. Tomorrow the one we should fear being added to that list is Doron Lamb.

He's by far the Cats' best perimeter weapon. Lamb has been an extremely reliable contributor, scoring in double figures in 10 of their 13 games. And the scouting report on Lamb isn't long; he's a shooter. Doron is capable of putting it in the hole from anywhere, but he's most dangerous behind the arc. It'll be interesting to see who guards Lamb tomorrow, most likely Chris Smith, but whoever it is will have to fight the urge to collapse with help defense into the lane; Lamb warrants a body on him at all times.

Like all pure shooters, Lamb can be neutralized; his ability to create his own shot is good but not great. Half the battle in stopping Lamb is stopping the other penetrating wings and expecting the kick out pass. Doron can fade in the backdrop of the game (he has a reputation of being one of UK's more petulant players); his output varies; against Loyola and Kansas, for example, his shot attempts were way down, to games like Indiana and Chattanooga where he was the Wildcats' primary weapon.

If Doron Lamb is capped at 12 points or so, it'll augur well for the Cardinals.

Still stewing about that Cousins elbow

In case anyone forgot about this...

Yeah right.

To a Cards fan, nothing has stirred the passions of the modern rivalry more than when Cousins cheap-shotted Swopshire the last time we were in Rupp. I still remember watching the game over at Red's house and his living room exploding with fury, and I imagine that such scenes were repeated in living rooms across the city of Louisville. It instantly entered into the canon of grievances that makes this rivalry so terrific and terrible all at once.

A few moments later,Calipari infamously shouted at Reginald Delk that "He'll (Eric Bledsoe) kick your ass after the game! You picked the wrong guy!" If the Cousins elbow stirred the passions, it was that moment that told us all we needed to know about Cal. And we haven't forgotten it.

Be prepared for tomorrow, the reception at Rupp, moments like the Cousins elbow, shown from a different angle below (TV replays here). This is what we can expect. 

Go Cards. Beat Kentucky.

Conventional wisdom about tomorrow that I DO buy into

* UofL cannot press against the Wildcats. It's just not gonna work. UofL lacks the personnel to do it properly, and even when you do, it's a risky proposition that burns your team more often than it helps. Let Russ Smith hound Teague down the court, but don't start pulling guys out of position. I think our matchup zone that Pitino puts wrinkles into can be effective in turning UK over; I hope the Cards hang their hat on that rather than the press.

* The Cards lack of road experience will hurt them. Sad but true, I think lots of players are walking into a cauldron tomorrow that they are not prepared for; on the road against the cuddly Butler Bulldog contingent doesn't really compare. If Louisville gets off to a very poor start tomorrow, expect this topic to resurface.

* Anthony Davis foul count is perhaps the biggest factor of the game. If I'm Pitino I'm drawing up my first 3 halfcourt offensive possessions with the goal of getting the ball to Gorgui and telling him to go straight at him. Davis can suffer from "can't help himself" syndrome (as do several Cards) and sending him to the bench early would have a huge impact on the outcome. The Cats are not a deep team.

* UK lacks a go-to guy. I put some stock into this. For all their talent, UK is a fairly leaderless squad. Teague is still behind the curve in his development, Terrence Jones is immature, Lamb is a primadonna, and it doesn't seem to be in Darius Miller's DNA. You could say it's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but being the fan favorite isn't necessarily the same as being a leader. Plus his skill set doesn't really beg for the ball to be in his hands at crunch time. UofL, despite its flaws, knows that Siva and Kuric get the ball at the end.

* Calipari is not a good floor coach. For the record, I don't believe Pitino is a spectacular floor coach either. But just once, I'd like Louisville to weather the punches, hang in there, and turn the game into a halfcourt dogfight with 9 minutes to play. I think the advantage would swing decidedly to the Cards when both teams go to their bench during timeouts.

Conventional wisdom about tomorrow that I don't buy into

* These Wildcats are wildly more talented than Louisville. I think talent is a moving target. Down the road, in 5 years, will UK have more active players in the NBA? Sure, of course. But right now, for tomorrow, do I believe that Marquis Teague is on a different level than Siva? Davis to Gorgui? Lamb to Chris Smith? I don't think so. UofL may lose, but it won't be because they lack the talent to win.

* All the pressure is on UK. No way. It's on Pitino. Calipari has bested and belittled him in his two years since taking the UK job. Rick Pitino needs a validating win against his archenemy.

* Russ Smith can't play like he has been against elite competition. He's going to have to adjust his game, of course everyone does once they are being scouted against. But Russ has elite quickness, he can play against anyone.

* UK can't shoot 3s. It's been the Achilles Heel of Cal's last two squads, and this year they seem to be following the trend. But Doron Lamb and Darius Miller are the two huge exceptions to the rule. When the Cards fall into the matchup-zone tomorrow, I hope it's with emphasis on the matchup part or it could be a long afternoon.

Oh, and Mark Jackson Jr. transferred

Totally forgotten amidst the hoopla is that Mark Jackson Jr., walk-on guard and son of famous NBA guard and TV personality of the same name, will be seeking a transfer. His stated intention, via Facebook, is to return to a school closer to his home in California.

Best of luck to Mark in the future, and let Pitino's constant beratement about how "fat" you are not haunt you for the rest of your life.

Enemy Dossier: Anthony Davis

NAME: Davis, Anthony AKA NEXT AKA Monobrow AKA Eyestache AKA Spiderman AKA Cleopatra AKA Catepillar AKA Uni-bromber

HOMETOWN: Chicago, ILL

SIZE & STATS: 6'10'' 220 lbs (11.6 ppg, 10.2 reb, 4.5 bpg)

CARDINAL COUNTERPART: Gorgui Dieng

POSITION ADVANTAGE: UK

MR. RED'S TAKE: An athletic freak of nature, the near-consensus #1 pick in the 2012 NBA draft truly breaks the mold. Until a growth spurt skyrocketed him heavenward, Davis was once just a typical 6'3'' guard waiting for colleges to show interest. An extra dose of hormones later, and now he's a 6'10'' center/forward with a guard's footwork, has the wingspan of a jumbo jet, and NBA scouts now speak his name more often than they do their own kids.

Anthony Davis' best play in his freshman season was when he swooped in to swat UNC's John Henson to preserve a victory at the buzzer. He's been a solid contributor from Day 1; he cleans up the dunks around the basket that are a hallmark of the dribble drive. But he's most effective on the defensive end. Davis is #2 in the nation in blocks per game and has affected at least three times as many shots.

The new wave of sabremetrics geeks will tell you that the blocked shot is the most overvalued statistic in basketball because, if you think about it, most often it just resets the opposing team's offense and yields few tangible positives. Anthony Davis is the exception to that. I watched the St. John's game when for long stretches at a time the Red Storm could not get a shot off. The effect was psychological; the holy shit this is gonna be embarassing if I put this up neurons were firing in the St. John's guys brains. So much so that the shot clock going off was deemed a better outcome.

Though Davis is a unique talent, this is one matchup where I believe the Cards fare fairly well. Gorgui is a physical specimen himself, and with his new frame, outbulks the gangly Davis by a noticeable margin. Gorgui was effective guarding Georgetown's Henry Sims, who is pretty similar to Davis in size and quickness. Plus, Davis breaks the mold so much, I don't think they've found the best way to utilize his particular skills yet.

Anthony Davis can, however, be the biggest factor in the game even he doesn't score a point if he dominates the paint on the defensive end. Getting Davis into foul trouble, I imagine, is very high up on Rick Pitino's game plan.

Beat UK

There's no reason to go off on the deep end waxing eloquent about this one. We know what's at stake. And by now, the importance is felt more than articulated.

This game is to be won in the square foot of real estate within each player's head. The Cards are 0-2 in the Calipari Era; two years ago the Cards tried to pump themselves up with braggadocio. They taunted UK pre-game, yelling  "We're some baad motherfuckers!" in the tunnel (which almost worked by the way, they clearly got in Cousins' head, but that's a different story). Last year the Cards took a meeker approach and were promptly and meekly swept away.

Neither approach is welcome. You can't psyche yourself up by denigrating UK's lottery picks, nor can you show them undo deference. You play with a quiet confidence in your abilties, belief in the gameplan, and faith in the guys in the foxhole with you. The last two years I do not believe the Cards were mentally prepared for this game.

Will this season be different? Less than 48 hours till we find out. Beat UK.

Dickie V. arrives in Commonwealth one game early

A more mature fan blogger would spend the day after last night's loss to Georgetown dissecting the Cards' inability to execute a consistent halfcourt offense, puzzling inability to hit layups, or lack of focus at the line. What I want to do is complain about Dick Vitale.

I know that Dickie V. seems to cross every college basketball fan sooner or later. Last night we took our turn. If you were a Cards fan watching this game on TV with the volume up, you know that his annoying-meter was through the roof.

Despite the fact that we were playing the 12th best team in the country during our conference opener; despite the stakes involved in this game including that we had an undefeated record, were playing the highest-ranked opponent to date, and had never lost a conference game at home yet at the Yum, the guy could not resist -- then could not stop -- talking about the Kentucky game.

He kept hyping his prediction for the Kentucky game throughout the telecast; he discussed Kentucky through multiple possessions. He called Pitino-Calipari the "Battle of the Linguine" (or something like that), and said that in response to "Pitino's Palace" UK wanted to build "Calipari's Castle." But when Louisville came out flat in the second half and the crowd grew quiet, Dickie V. attributed it to the fact that Louisville players and fans must be thinking too much about the Kentucky game!

Pot, kettle, black. (Or alternatively, "the thief shouts robber!" or "one donkey accuses the other of having long ears!"... interesting to read all the regional and national versions of the analogy. Anyway...)

In the second half, Dickie V. finally gave his long-awaited prediction, and he picked UK, which is fine. But then, as is his wont, he commented excessively, launching into the tired diatribe about how our ranking has been unearned, said his bit again about how Louisville hasn't been to the airport (admittedly funny the first time, getting a little old after he tweeted a week ago), and criticized our schedule, toughness, and talent.

Now, I have no problem with a commentator analyzing our pre-conference scheduling approach and finding it lacking; I often wonder about it myself. And in fairness, he also praised the Big East, loves the Yum, and paid the usual homage to Rick Pitino. But the cumulative effect of talking nonstop about UK during a game not involving UK, then accusing us of thinking too much about UK, then picking UK to beat us, then saying we haven't earned our #4 ranking, is that Dick Vitale came off (to this Card fan at least) as parochial, unfocused, and more than a little irritating.

Stewing and chewing; post loss notes

I haven't seen the fanbase this down in awhile. And who am I to go against the zeitgeist? I'm pretty bummed myself. One loss isn't the end of the world, and our lofty ranking wasn't really that important. But Louisville fans know good basketball when they see it; they crave it like manna in the desert. And right now, it just ain't there. Other thoughts...
 
* The Cards are getting next to nothing from the power forward position. Chane's 8 & 8 doesn't sound bad, until you realize that he shot 50% from the field despite having a range of two feet (another misbegotten 3 attempt notwithstanding).

And Buckles looks like he was plucked from an entirely different team and thrown into the lineup at the last second. He's out of place and out of sync with what the rest of the squad is doing; 2 points and 3 rebounds in 17 minutes of play isn't going to cut it. The Cards were banking on the 4 spot being a strength this season; those two need to get it together quickly.

* The Cards got off to the best start of any game this season. And it was all done with half court execution. Alley oop from Chris Smith to Dieng. Kuric 3 from the corner, from Smith. Kuric 3 off the dribble. Chris Smith 3 from Siva.

It was beautiful. Which goes to show that, yes, this team can score and execute, they don't have some birth defect or something that precludes it. Why they don't more often, however, is still a mystery. Chris Smith was on track to having a spectacular game, but fell off the radar somewhere along the way.

* Nerlens Noel was in attendance and was chauffered around by Andre McGee. He looked tall.

* Peyton Siva had his best game in a long time. 15 points, 6 assists and just 2 turnovers. It was good to see him slicing his way back into the lane. But it's also a little bit sad watching him play the way he did last night; Siva has truly become a one-trick pony. He drives, absorbs contact, and hangs in the air acrobatically before putting up a wild shot that he makes more often than not. He can still be very effective that way, but last night it was like watching a sports car drive with just three wheels.

* Rick was predictably churlish in the post-game presser. He told the room to "ask any UK questions now, so I don't have to bother you with another press conference" which I think caught a lot of people off guard. He was then forced to answer the bi-annual "What's it like going back to Rupp Arena as part of the opposition?" question that had me rolling my eyes. Really? We haven't covered this before? He's been here 10 years.

* Please shut down the fullcourt trapping press. Last night it was broken so easily at a key moment of the comeback and led to a wide open 3 which Georgetown knocked down. Keep the man to man press if you must; picking the other team's pocket is what Russ and Peyton do best anyways and it can "wear the other team down" as well, if there exists any truth in that mantra. But I can't stomach continuing to watch the Cards give away easy buckets.

* It ended up being for naught, but that comeback was still incredible. It came out of no where and seemed to happen in a flash, as if I blinked for a moment, and woke up and the crowd was going nuts and the score was tied. This team has tons of heart, which is why they are so easy to support and also why it's so frustrating to watch them underperform.

From bad to worse; Cards fall to Hoyas 71-68

A rough 48 hours for the Cardinals. In the wake of the Belk Bowl loss, the basketball Cardinals finally succumbed to that humbling, universe-correcting loss that everyone in the country (except Chane Behanan) seemed to be expecting.

There's a lot of consternation right now, much of it deserved, some of it just pre-UK anxiety projecting itself. But let's not throw the baby out with the bath water; the Cards didn't just get trounced by 20. They lost by 3 against a quality and balanced Georgetown team, and if Louisville hit its free throws and made the bunnies around the basket, the Cards walk away with another victory despite our obvious flaws.

This team plays hard, but they do not play smart. Much will be made of the poor sequence after Louisville rallied to tie the game late at 63, and couldn't cap off the comeback. But in reality, this game was lost in the first 10 minutes of the second half when Louisville lost its lead and fell behind. The Cards are yet to play 40 minutes of focused basketball.

But again, this isn't time to panic. There's need for improvement in almost every area, but the Cards have the characters and the character to do just that. It will be a restless night's sleep for many; there were so many what-ifs after this loss. Hat's off to Georgetown, the team with far more poise tonight.

On to UK. Get better. Go Cards.

5 to watch for

* Halfcourt execution. The Cards are struggling mightily to execute their half court offensive sets. It seems like all our points come on the fastbreak or off a Gorgui offensive rebound. A well-executed pick and roll or a drive and dish out with an extra pass to the open shooter would be a sight for sore eyes. Oh, and then make the shot. Cards are 159th in the country in field goal percentage. I know there are capable shooters on this team, but it'd be nice to be reminded with greater frequency.

* Gorgui backing up his talk. I don't know if it qualifies as smack, but Dieng's claim that he will be faster and quicker than any big man he goes up against will be put to the test tonight against Hoya center Henry Sims. Another double-double from the Gorgui Monster, and we'll have few reasons to doubt him.

* How Chane got his groove back. Behanan has struggled for much of December, the Charleston game notwithstanding. But his attitude and effort haven't slacked, which puts him a head above recent pouters like Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings. Chane is built for the Big East and tonight he'll get his first taste of it. I think he'll have a big game.

* To press or not to press. Look for how much full court pressure Pitino employs to be the story pre-UK. How it effects, or does not effect, a quality team like Georgetown will tell us a lot. Personally I like full court man-to-man pressure to let Russ Smith take his chances (he's leading the nation in steal efficiency). But the trapping press could be a recipe for disaster. The Cards matchup zone in the halfcourt is formidable; I'd like to see us work out of it more.

* Bottling the Russ Smith lightning. Smith is going to have to adjust as the competition gets stiffer and the tempo of games slows. He can still be an amazing weapon; his first step is unguardable and he has a knack for getting to the line. I'd like to see him maximize his efficiency without losing his effectiveness. If he keeps learning and improving, he'll be a complete player and much more than a offensive novelty act.

VillenHD presents UofL-WKU highlights

If you ignore the score at the bottom and set it to hip hop, this game really doesn't seem that bad...

Georgetown twitter bomb

I'm heading to the Georgetown game tonight as an esteemed member of the media. If I ever get tired of this, someone please slap me. I get so mad when I see cynical, world weary sports reporters: You get to cover sports for a living! Smile why don't you!

So, yes, Kenny Klein has graciously granted me a credential in exchange for my promise to stop emailing him. I'd like to start a live-blog in the future, but I need to scope out the wi-fi situation first to see how practical it is. Tonight, however, I'll just be twittering my ass off during the action. So if you haven't yet, follow CL by clicking the little thingy at the top. Following also helps me out in the Biggest Fan of the Big East Contest, which speaking of, vote HERE.

Okay, back to the Cards.

Modern. Southern. Style. Bummer.

Well we finally found out what the hell Belk is; a retail chain tailored mostly to women who wear prim hats while lounging in their living rooms.

But it will be remembered around here for something different. It will be remembered for Teddy Bridgewater's jersey that was eight different shades of green by the end. It will be remembered for the Louisville coaching staff emptying the entire playbook with onsides kicks, fake punts and trick plays; evincing a will that starts from the top down. It will be remembered for the mistakes; the dropped passes, 4th and 1 stuffs, and Pick-6s that went unpicked.

It was a wildly entertaining game with at least a dozen "difference-maker" moments that stand out; for a mid-tier bowl sandwiched between Christmas and New Year's, that's really all you can ask for.

The 2011 season is over. Thanks to the players and coaches for fighting through the early adversity and taking another step on the path of rebuilding. Next year will be a wholly different dynamic, the first of the Strong Era that will come with (gulp) expectations. Here's hoping that 2012 brings a team with a similar will to win and frenetic style, but with a sharper mental focus and more polished playmaking.

It won't be long till the topic of Spring Practice starts up, and that's about as big a compliment as you can give to the groundwork these coaches and athletes have laid. This team will be remembered fondly.

Cards Lose Belk Bowl to NC State, 31-24

Louisville lost tonight, but did they ever go down fighting. And their unlikely, unfinished comeback is what I'll remember from this game.

 The loss is disappointing, but I'm making the easy choice of staying positive about what we just saw. Only two seasons post-Kragthorpe, this program has made incredible strides back toward national prominence. This defeat hardly tarnishes that. In fact, even in Cardinal defeat, anyone watching the last quarter-and-a-half could hardly miss the sense of opportunity and possibility currently pervading our whole football program, disorganized and frantic though the effort was tonight.

Congrats too to NC State. Mike Glennon was impressive at quarterback, at times dominating and confusing our defense at will. It goes without saying that cornerback David Amerson, who leads the NCAA in interceptions and had more this season than the entire Cardinal defense, and who picked us twice tonight, was as good as advertised.

In the end, the Cards dug themselves too deep a hole to climb out of -- 31-10 is close to insurmountable when it comes against a truly high-powered offense. Against our ball-control, run-up-the-gut-on-first-down approach, it's practically airtight.

But somehow, improbably, the Cards came roaring back.

Who will soon forget the dynamism and excitement felt during that sequence when, late in the 3rd quarter, the game seemingly growing out of reach, the Cards faked on fourth down and got it, followed by Nate Nord's incredible lunging touchdown grab from a scrambling Teddy, followed by the surprise onside kick? How fitting that the Louisville D closed out its year by stuffing the Wolfpack on fourth down and forcing a turnover on downs, leaving the announcers incredulous at the turn of events and the Cardinals with one last prayer?

The prayers went unanswered tonight. But Cards fans will have no problem keeping the faith. These Cardinals were picked to finish second to last in the conference. They were supposed to rebuild, stay home this winter, and think about what bowl games might be possible next year. Instead, they created a youth movement, insisted on competing and being respected and going to a bowl THIS season, laid claim to the Big East title.

Stats here.

These Cardinals are young. They're talented. They're hungry. The defense swarms; the offense is athletic and led by a truly special talent at qb. They're all learning at an exponential rate. They'll be back.

But for now, I hope they reflect on what was accomplished this season. Congrats on 2011 guys, which surpassed expectation, earned widespread admiration, and cried out at the promise of what is to come. Helluva ride.

Go Cards.

Predictions predictions...(and predictions)

My how it all goes by in a blink. The Cards will cap the 2011 season tonight and hopefully pop some champagne. Good times are here again for the Louisville Cardinals; we have another stellar recruiting class coming aboard in one month, we have found a QB for the future, and have a beloved coach that has given as firm an indication as a human can give that he is here to finish what he began. But we'll recap the whole season in due course.

Right now, there's football at hand. I have to admit, the more I read about the Wolfpack the more I respect them; they have poise and experience and will essentially be playing a home game. The deck appears to be stacked and not in our favor.

But bowl games are a whole universe unto themselves. The teams have been living in a bubble for the last week and the "season" as it were has been over for a month. It's just a football game, now. There are few overarching pressures beyond pride and building momentum to next season.

And that's the reason why I like the Cards in this one. It's a young team that is still naive enough to play fast and loose in these environments. I expect a crazy game that flips a lot of common knowledge on its head. Namely, in the sloppy weather, look for Louisville to do most of its damage on the ground. The offensive line will make a quantum leap forward and the Cards will work in the trenches when NC State is looking to blitz a freshman QB.

Defensively, it will come down to which opportunistic unit makes the most of its opportunities at the opportune time, savvy? A redzone turnover will swing the outcome, and look for Dexter Heyman to make one lasting impact play; an INT while dropping back into coverage.

This one won't be a shootout, but I expect it to be entertaining. 21-17 Cards. Player of game? Dominique Brown.

**MR. BLACK'S TAKE**

Mr. Black is on the road, driving to D.C. to do Mr. Black things and commit certain deeds that may or may not include the food of John Thompson III (and rest assured, he will be in front of his TV by kickoff). He has just texted me his thoughts on tonight and asked me to share them with you...

I forsee Louisville falling behind and struggling early. Special teams will rejuvenate the team like it did last season in the Beef O'Brady's Bowl. Look for a big return by Adrian Bushell to help keep the Cards close. The offense will come alive in the 3rd quarter on the strength of two TD passes from Bridgewater to Parker. Call this one for the Cards 35-30. Player of game? DeVante Parker.

Nerlens Noel visit

Three days too late to completely blow the lid off the #cardinalchristmas thread. Oh well, better late than never.

Nerlens Noel, the 6'10'' all-universe center with offers from every college in the land, will be making an unofficial visit to the Kayefseum for the UofL-Georgetown game. So if you see him, smile and try to say something clever. You come for his game, but you stay for the hair; the flat-top is ineffably awesome.

Rick Pitino presser

HERE. Noon.

Mr. Red's Big East Power Rankings

1) Syracuse (13-0). How many wins for the Orange this season? A bunch of thousand.

2) Louisville (12-0). We can call them overrated. You cannot.

3) UConn (10-1). Drummond banging slowly.

4) Georgetown (10-1). Hoyas have been down this road before. Last year it led to a cliff. Hollis Thompson a special player though.

5) Marquette (11-1). A Big East team that loses to an SEC school not named UK moves down 2 spots. Standard operating procedure.

6) Seton Hall (11-1). Are the Pirates for real? Does Herb Pope shit in the woods?

7) West Virginia (9-3) Casual Male Big & Tall couldn't tailor a better team for Bob Huggins.

8) Pitt (11-2). Loss to Wagner not as bad as it sounds, but Panther stock is one more bad loss away from a fire sale.

9) DePaul (9-3). "Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks! Cleveland rocks, Oh, Cleve-land rocks!" Good luck getting that diddy out of your head.

10) Providence (11-2). Friars are about as deep as Khloe Kardashian. Five players average 34+ minutes. Those 5 can ball, but not exactly a formula for Big East success.

11) Cincinnati (9-3). Mick Cronin quietly asking if Yancy Gates suspension can be upped.

12) Notre Dame (8-5). Luke Harangody seen walking out of graduate enrollment office doing lunges.

13) Villanova (7-5). As King Philip told his son, Alexander the Great: No man or woman can be too powerful or too beautiful without disaster befalling. Sorry, Jay, can't have it all.

14) Rutgers (7-5). Going to be interesting to see who rises from the bottom of the barrel this year. My money's on Scarlet Knights.

15) South Florida (7-6). Augustus Gilchrist has NBA written all over him. I mean that in a bad way.

16) St. John's (6-5). On the bright side, Johnnies rep beating my ass in the BFOTBE Voting. The bad news, everything else.

Last week's.

How NC State got in

Down 41-14 and needing a miracle, they rallied. If the Cards are fortunate enough to jump to a lead tonight, make sure you don't pop the champagne too early...

What does the Belk bowl mean?

Let's face it, the fate of western civilization doesn't rest on tomorrow's outcome. The fate of Cardinal football doesn't even rest on tomorrow's outcome. The only truly shocking or surprising result would be if Louisville were totally dominated, and even that would just put a speed bump in front of the Charlie Strong Express.

That's not the same as saying that a Belk Bowl victory would have no repurcussions. Here's a few...

5) 2012 ranking. Unlike basketball, in college football of course, the numbers next to your team's name matter a great deal. I think the Louisville Cardinals will be in the preseason Top #25 next season based on their end-of-season momentum and the youth movement that propelled it. A W would move the ranking a few spots lower.

4) Teddy exposure. We have something special in Bridgewater. We know that, some of the other Big East programs know that, but outside of that, he's likely still a secret. Tomorrow can help the process of getting the word out.

3) Send out the seniors. We say goodbye to a lot of fine Cardinal footballers tomorrow. And Josh Chichester. The efforts of these young athletes to fulcrum the Louisville program back on the correct course is laudable. I greatly want to send them out with a bowl victory.

2)  Butts in the seats. The requests for season ticket re-ups will be mailed back a bit quicker if the Cards end the year on a high note. More fans watched live Louisville football this season than any year in program history. And now that Charlie Strong has corrected our trajectory, that number will continue to grow. For diehards that are desperate for the PJ to become a fiercesome hot bed for opposing teams, moments like these are opportunities to move the needle.

1) "More fun": The words of Gordon Bombay to his Mighty Ducks. These games are for the fans; for those fortunate enough to travel, it's a mid-winter vacation of nonstop Cardinal immersion. There's nothing like it. For those that cannot, it's one more chance to call the troops together, throw on the gameday gear and rally around Louisville football. The days are getting short and the offseason is long. Once more into the breach, dear Cardinals. Be sure to relish every moment.

Enemy Dossier: Mike Glennon

NAME: Glennon, Mike

HOMETOWN: Centreville, VA

SIZE & STATS: 6'6'', 232 lbs (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 62.4% comp, 134.9 QB rating)

CARDINAL COUNTERPART: Teddy Bridgewater

POSITION ADVANTAGE: PUSH

MR. RED's TAKE: Junior Mike Glennon had all-around impressive season, his first as starter, for the Wolfpack. And it wasn't an easy road. After coach Tom O'Brien had an ugly offseason breakup with QB Russell Wilson, Wilson transferred to Wisconsin and had the Badgers on a course for the national championship (settling for the Rose Bowl instead). The weight on Mike Glennon was immense, but he shook off some early struggles and improved throughout the year. He was playing his best football as the season ended with two big wins over Clemson and Maryland, when Glennon threw for a combined 8 TDs and 500+ yards.

Glennon is regarded as having one of the biggest arms in the ACC. He throws a deep ball that, combined with his size, is already drawing the attention of pro scouts. He's been described as similar to the Falcons' Matt Ryan but with a stronger arm.

If there's a knock on Glennon it is his immobililty and that he often holds onto the ball too long. He took 30 sacks on the year, a stat that has to make defensive coordinator Vance Bedford lick his chops.

For this matchup the QBs are a push. Glennon has more experience, superior stats and is the more accurate passer; Bridgewater has greater mobility, better pocket awareness and a live arm of his own. Both QBs are fine leaders that will get plenty of looks from the NFL before their time is up.

Post X-mas scattershot

Between holiday parties and the week upcoming, the collective liver of Cardinal Nation has turned a shade of unhealthier grey. Gonna be a fun week...

* Belk Bowl time. While we were away, the football Cards got after some hot, nasty, badass speed at Charlotte Motor Speedway, as part of the Richard Petty Driving Experience. Several players also visited Levin Children's Hospital where they visited with the young patients and handed out presents. And then the squad received its own at the team dinner last night; Big East championship rings. Anyone that doubts the importance of these mid-whatever-tier bowls sounds like they're cheering for a team that didn't reach 6 wins. It's a blast for the fans that are able to make the trip, and the bonding and growth potential for a young team is through the roof.

* I don't know about you, but Peyton Siva was the hot topic at many of my holiday get-togethers. The theories are plentiful and diverse, but the only real thing we know is that Siva is struggling, and the team is barely scraping by as a result.

The easiest way to explain this away is Peyton's lingering ankle injury. As my mom used to tell me when I was trying to fake sick from school and would ask if she thought I was in too bad of shape to go: "I can't jump in your body and tell you how you feel" would be her maddening reply that put me back on the spot. But it's still true, I can't jump inside Siva's body to tell how bad his ankle is ailing.

But the sad truth is, with the way Siva plays the game, playing through injuries comes with the territory. When you're a small slashing guard that welcomes contact in the lane, you're going to spend a lot of time on the floor. When you play the kind of pesky defense he thrives on, diving for loose balls is a prerequisite. If we're waiting for Siva to get fully healthy to snap out of his funk, we'll be waiting for the opening tipoff of next season, and soon after we'll be having the same conversations I'm afraid.

In my opinion, I don't think anything that is ailing Siva's ankle rivals what is going on in his head. It is his decision-making that has been poor the last 3 outings. It's clear that the opposition has seen video on Siva and the strategy is out; leave him open. So far, it has worked. Peyton seems to have zero confidence in his perimeter game, and now with all the space he's getting, when he makes a move it takes longer and puts him over into no man's land and the halfcourt offense is thrown out of whack.

I'd advise Siva to take the T-Will approach. Keep calm and keep shooting. Williams was never a strong jump shooter, but he would force the issue and still effectively punish the opposition for overguarding against his drive. Siva can shoot, at least to that degree of effectiveness. He just lacks confidence right now, you can see it in the moments of hesitation when he receives the ball in space. Like T-Will, Siva has earned the right and stature to shoot his way out of this funk. It feels like if he could just get two or three to fall in a row all the rest would snap back into place.

* I'll give Rick Pitino the benefit of the doubt because the Cards won the game, but his refusal to call a timeout when the Hilltoppers were sprinting out to a 22-9 lead was infuriating. I'm pretty sure Pitino knows this group isn't explosive enough to guarantee a comeback; it almost looked like he was OK with a L in exchange for a dialed in team heading into the biggest week of the season.

* Speaking of, it IS officially "UK Week", though with Belk Bowl and Georgetown on tap before, it sure doesn't feel like it. The holiday spirit won't linger long, or in the case of KSR, never really start. Take the reaction to two holiday videos released by the respective teams, for instance. Writer Drew Franklin posted this ridiculously over-the-top and lame X-Mas video of two Wildcats singing "All I Want For Christmas Is You" by Mariah Carrey (warning: the contents are disturbing). The video was well-received by Big Blue Nation as "hilarious!" and "kids having fun" and "everything that is good about UK basketball". OK, fine, whatever floats your boat. But mere hours later, and same writer posted "12 Days of Christmas" video made by last year's Cardinals. The headline read "Most Awkward Christmas Video Ever. Point blank. Period". Wait, what?

It's just how it works, I suppose, when appealing to the lowest common denominator is the goal. But everyone brush off their best Jon Stewart impersonations, cause the UK Spin Zone is twirling full force, and this week we'll get sucked in whether we like it or not. Gonna be a long week.

* Look for the Buckles-Behanan battle for minutes to increase in the coming games. Buckles is far more polished on offense; Behanan the glass warrior. Both will be invaluable to this team once the Big East grind begins.

Belk Bowl Preview

Records: UofL 7-5 NC St. 7-5

By the numbers, 10,000 ft. view:

Passing: UofL 206.3 Yards Per Game NC St. 238 YPG

Rushing: UofL 121.9 YPG NC St. 108.2 YPG

Passing Defense: UofL 127.57 YPG NC St. 118.89 YPG

Rushing Defense: UofL 103.5 YPG NC St. 132.4 YPG

Scoring Offense: UofL 21.8 PPG NC St. 28 PPG

Scoring Defense: UofL 19.2 PPG NC St. 24.8 PPG

Based on the numbers above, the game appears to be a wash when one compares the Cards and Wolfpack. What the numbers don't show is that UofL averaged 29.4PPG in their last five outings, while allowing an average of 22 PPG. Compare that to the first 5 games when UofL averaged 16.4 PPG and gave up an average of 16.2 PPG, and I see an offense that's coalesced around stud Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater. Sure, the scoring defense has gotten a little worse, but considering the last five games were all Big East matchups (including the relative shootout against WVU), I think we have sufficient justification for the higher Points Against number.

That's not to say this is a sure thing. The line in Vegas two weeks ago had NC State favored by 2.5. As of the morning of 12/26, the line has moved to NC State -1, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it move to a pick'em before kickoff. The Wolfpack remind me of our John L. Smith teams: Flashes of offensive brilliance (see NC St/Maryland) or utter ineptitude (see NC St/Florida State), depending on the game. Call of Duty week aside, the Cards have remained rather steady from week to week, with gradual improvement throughout the season.

I'm calling this one 31-24 Cards. Because UofL is so young, I think we have much more to gain (or lose) from the extra month of practice, but Coach Strong and his staff will have our team dialed in come kickoff tomorrow afternoon.

Off to Charlotte.