DROUGHT OVER: CARDS OVER CATS 24-17

Tonight, notice was served. The Louisville Cardinals have submitted a message to the whole of the Commonwealth. Understand this, friends and foes alike:

Kentucky's domination of this rivalry had ended.

Tonight, we saw the future.

The Cards have defeated the Kentucky Wildcats, ending UK's four-year win streak and doing so in its own back yard. However, what should most energize the Cardinal faithful, and send chills straight down the spines of Kentucky fans across the state, is that Louisville defeated the Cats with its freshman and sophomore classes, names like Bridgewater and Brown and Connor and Hakeem. Swarming, thriving playmakers who will haunt Kentucky for years to come.

Louisville's veterans were there to embrace the cup. They deserve this moment, for this win would not have come about without their contributions and leadership. These were juniors and seniors starving for a victory against their archrival, guys like Josh Bellamy, William Savoy, Dexter Heyman, Gregg Scruggs and Will Stein.

But the game's balance swung on the crucial plays of the Charlie Strong recruits. Young men who played this rivalry game with such swagger, abandon, and intensity, that it was impossible not to believe, by game's end, that this was only the beginning.

Stats here.

Cards over Cats, 24-17. The Governor's Cup has been returned to Louisville. Congratulations Cardinals.

GO CARDS!

Game Time

BEAT KENTUCKY.

...and predictions

Seems like there have been a number of times in recent memory where Louisville fell behind early, battled back to contention, and lost by about a touchdown or less. Kentucky last year. Oregon State last year. FIU last week. Tonight, in the most anticipated annual football event in the Commonwealth, the Cards will finally master the art of the late-game comeback.

Louisville will fall behind early, obviously. Morgan Newton will connect on a few big plays, routing our young secondary to build the Wildcats' two-touchdown lead. However, Vance Bedford will turn up the heat in the second quarter, blitzing with reckless abandon and ruining the quarterback's confidence. A Dexter Heyman-forced fumble will kill a deadly-looking drive toward the end of the half, but a devastatingly ineffective performance by our offense, summed by our continued inability to establish the run, will send the Cards into the locker room with little momentum, down by 14. At which point, Mike Sanford will have to decide if he wants to open his playbook, abandon the run, and take some chances downfield.

He will. In the second half, look for a scrambling Will Stein to connect on a number of impressive passes (in between a few embarrassments), thereby setting up the run and allowing Louisville to pull within a touchdown early in the fourth quarter on a lunging catch by Chi. The defense will hold firm, and with less than five minutes in the game, Jeremy Wright will finally break into the open for a long dash toward the end zone, pulling the Cards ahead with minutes to spare. The defense will hold steady on the ensuing series, forcing the Wildcats to turn the ball over on downs, though the series won't be without a controversial no-call favoring the Cards. With dreams of Cardinal players rushing onto the field to claim a cup they've never known, I'm calling this one for the Cards, 31-27. Player of the game: Will Stein.

DaMarcus taking the mystery out of it

His mom and grandma's gameday attire...

Predictions, predictions...

I had a dream last night, or a snippet from a dream of Jeremy Wright bursting through the UK defense for a long 60ish yard touchdown at the end of the 3rd quarter to put Louisville up 17-16. While my dreams have shown little to no predictive power for sports or naked women, I still see no reason to ignore the fates.

I think the game hinges on turnovers and big plays. I don't think we'll see many long, sustained drives on offense. Instead it'll be a rather rhythmless affair for both O's with lots of 3 and outs. The team that wins will be the one that doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with a costly turnover, and doesn't give up a huge quick strike due to poor tackling or angling.

Unfortunately, my prognosis would seem to bode ill for the Cards, who gave up blitzkrieg type plays against FIU and T.Y. Hilton and have struggled to take care of the football.

But I think the Cards mature considerably this week. They'll rally around their underdog status and the hatred pouring from the stands. Plus I don't think Commonwealth will be overly loud, as the game is yet to sell out (though Louisville did sell its allotment of tickets, a major faux pas in Eric Crawford's column for which he issued a retraction. Not to pile on EC this week, but how does that happen? Did he even bother to run the "fact" by the UofL people, or do we all just get information 5th hand from Twitter now?).

I think UofL scores first on an Andrell Smith TD which propels them for the rest of the game. Louisville controls the statistical margins for most of the first half, but UK surges right before halftime with a quick strike after a Stein INT and they take a 13-10 lead into the locker room.

Wright's breakthrough TD I mentioned above puts the Cards up 17-16 late in the 3rd quarter. It's a nailbiting 4th as Louisville can smell a victory and the end of the streak. Newton throws a pick-6 that puts Louisville up 24-16 and seemingly seals the W. But UK storms downfield with less than 3 minutes left. A huge play from La'Rod King sets up a TD that Morgan Newton rushes in.

UK has to go for two and bootlegs Newton with an option to run or pass. He chooses the latter and it falls incomplete. Player of the game? Jeremy Wright. UofL scores the upset 24-23 in a remarkably memorable game that defies the hohum buildup.

Just stop

Remember when Rick Pitino was asked about UK's coach after Gillespie, and he fully endorsed Travis Ford or John Pelphrey for the job even though most everyone saw it as a transparent ploy to keep Calipari out of Lexington?

Well, the same thing's going on when I listen to segments like on Matt Jones' radio show today and there was talk about when Charlie Strong will be put on the proverbial "hot seat" at UofL. Jones put on his "serious objective" tone and you can practically see his large head shaking in faux-concern: "I don't know, if he goes 5-7 he might be in trouble."

Please. Just stop. Please. Charlie's ass wouldn't and shouldn't feel a degree of discomfort until after his fourth season at the helm. Maybe not even then.

The first word out of Charlie Strong's mouth every single time he's been asked about Louisville rebuilding has been "recruiting". And he's right. And this ain't basketball.

Football recruiting takes time. It takes several years of consistency, redshirtting, depth, and conditioning. And Charlie Strong has excelled in every one of those areas in his year and a half on the job. So it's true, we won't be Orange bowling this year, but this "hot seat" bullshit needs to be called out as such from the start.

Steinography

The outcome of this battle of the Bluegrass rests on one player's shoulders more then any else. William Stein. Without a superb outing from Stein, UofL's chances for coming out on top are nil.

We can't run the ball like we did last year. And despite some solid play on defense, the unit has not shown the ball-hawking, game-changing opportunism it did a season ago.

But the Cards are not without weapons. Strong and Sanford can look at these rosters and spot significant mismatches in Louisville's favor. Our receivers outclass their secondary, and hold the key to victory in their collective hands.

But someone's gotta get it there. Will Stein doesn't have to play flawless football, but we can't afford a pick-6 like in Week 2, or a fumble in our own territory like in Week 1.

Short Fry's moxie was a topic of much discussion in the off-season. Strong famously chided him from dangerous play, telling him "Not to be Brett Favre" and suppress his gunslinger instinct. But that's a tight rope to walk for a QB. Especially one without Bilal Powell and a veteran front.

Frankly, after watching the first two games, I'd prefer to see a little more Favre (haha) and a little less Dilfer. Our offense has looked stagnant, a byproduct of our stalled running game no doubt, but also without the quick strike ability that rattles a defense's confidence and puts them on the, well, defensive.

Most teams use a running game to open up passing. But it can also work in reverse. If the Cards put all our playmaking receivers on the field, I don't see any way UK can stop someone from getting wide open.

But if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. None of that matters if Will Stein can't deliver tomorrow. It's not an earthshattering observation, perhaps, but it's still the most important variable in the game.

Soooo, the moral of the post? Be Brett Favre but without the turnovers and the weiner pics. That's all I'm asking.

I'm not sayin' UK fans are hicks, but...

Keep your friends close...

Outside the rivalry, several of these Cards and Cats have tangoed before. From Fox 41:

The Courier Journal doubles down

Remember when I said that the local media was going to have to find a new story after Charlie Strong had the audacity to state facts in yesterday's press conference? And then his team leaders essentially agreed and said other typical things about working hard to get better and win the game?

Well, I was wrong, cause Eric Crawford and Rick Bozich have smelled themselves some rotten meat and are runnin' with it!

Strong didn't guarantee a victory you see. He acknowledged the easily wikipediable facts that we've lost to UK four years in a row and that UK has gone to 5 bowl games in a row. In a week when the Gov Cup is a little short on juice, I guess that counts as concentrate. But I call it dregs.

Bozich dedicated his Tuesday column to the "scathing" comment, which I just yawned at, but then Eric Crawford doubled down today with another.

Because of the lack of a narrative, the same reporters asked Joker Phillips about Strong's pessimism in a subsequent press conference. Phillips gave more of the same, fairly obvious coach talking points. "He's just motivating his team" etc etc.

Everyone seems to think that Strong's comment was fairly mundane except for the CJ staff, who are frothing over it. Does anyone actually think the Cardinals are working more or less hard this week based on Strong's comment? If so, I've got a few shares of Courier Journal stock to sell you.

Crawford did write one trenchant line about Strong...

It’s difficult to get a feel for him. He doesn’t spend much time sharing insights with the media.

And vice versa.

DaMarcus come home

Cardchron gives a recap of the DaMarcus Smith vs. Brandon Bender imbruglia that flared up on twitter last night.

It started over Bender saying something about Smith's current girlfriend, but quickly devolved into much more. DaMarcus said associating with Bender was the biggest mistake of his life. The best line, however, was from Bender, shamelessly trying to fling pretend-dirt at the Louisville program...

Damn isn't that crazy I am the one who told u don't take the money from lville and u doin it anyway huh?? wow son

Yea son, he told you not to take that big bag with the dollar signs on it from coach Strong, but you doin it anyways??  Must not care about UCF's beautiful campus. Big mistake son. Big mistake.

Bender has since deleted his account. Look, everyone knows Bender is a complete tool. But I'm against the backlash against DaMarcus. I'm hearing a lot of fans that simply want to wash their hands of both and the entire incident. Many seem to think that he's too much drama and not worth the effort.

I disagree. DaMarcus seems legitimately contrite. He realized he made a mistake choosing UCF almost immediately and has been trying to get out of it since. I don't know how you cannot feel some empathy for his situation. He made a bad choice and is trying to fix it. He didn't commit a crime. He hasn't done anything immoral. Yesterday he tweeted...

I swear if people really knew how messed up my situation was! They'd change their perspectives about me! Buts it's okay! Its my fault.

But it's not his fault that we're all so curious about him. It drives me nuts when people are like, I'm sooooooooo sick of hearing about DaMarcus Smith. I just hate it how he tweets soooo much.  It's like when ESPN personalities rolled their eyes about how tired they were of the Brett Favre coverage.

There's an excellent chance he still becomes a Cardinal, and I, for one, can't wait. With Bridgewater not taking the program by storm, so far, I think Smith has to like his chances in a QB battle next year. If nothing else, I think a Bridgewater-Smith combo would be better than one with Stein. You think he might just be a little motivated once he finally hits campus? He'll have another year of physical maturity and all his eligibility. I think he'll work his ass off. The prospect of DaMarcus Smith becoming the next great Louisville QB is still very much alive.

After all, someone that hates Brandon Bender so much now has to have matured considerably.

Enemy Dossier: Morgan Newton

NAME: Newton, Morgan AKA Fig

HOMETOWN: Carmel, IN

SIZE & STATS: 6'4'', 240lbs, 2011 stats (44.4% comp, 2 TDs, 4 INTs, 6 sacks)

CARDINAL COUNTERPART: Will Stein

POSITION ADVANTAGE: Push

MR. RED'S TAKE: Newton has had a strange career as a wildcat. Entering school as one of the most highly touted prospects in their program's history, Newton was thrust into a starting role as a true freshman midway through a season he was supposed to redshirt. He guided the team ably, won road games in the SEC, and took UK to a bowl game while maintaining a 109 QB rating.

But then he couldn't beat out the bland but effective Mike Hartline for the starting role next fall, and languished on the bench his sophomore season. He again took over for Hartline after his suspension for their bowl game, and did not perform well.

His growth before this season was a hot topic, but so far there has been little evidence of it. But just when you are ready to count Newton out, he seems to come up with a clutch play. Deceptively unathletic, Newton is not much of a threat running the ball, but if he does get his big body moving, he's tough to bring down. Kinda like Bowser in MarioKart.

Newton's struggles, however, cannot be highlighted without mentioning those of his receiving corps, one that has given him no help and cannot seem to hold on to the football. Still, one gets the feeling we haven't seen Newton play anything close to his best football. He throws a nice deep ball, and if his line and receivers can ever click, he can be a very effective QB.

I think Newton's ceiling is higher than that of Will Stein's, but just by comparing their statistics, I couldn't give Short Fry the shrift on this one (63% comp, 4 TDs, 2 INTs). Stein did throw for 349 yards last game after all.

But while Stein benefits from a studly receiving corps yet is always on the run due to a porous line, Newton has a subpar receiving corps but a big and experienced O-line. Feels pushy to me.

Humbled

Coach Charlie Strong took the podium today with a very difficult task. How to acknowledge the reality of a humiliating defeat, answer questions forthrightly about the state of Louisville rebuilding, all while not destroying his young squad's confidence as it heads into a hostile environment in the early stages of a season.

I think he succeeded. He answered the question honestly when he said: "I don't know if we can beat UK".

The reporters seemed to treat the remark as some sort of gaffe, continuing to bring it up. How will the team respond when they hear you don't know if they can beat UK???? Gasp.

But that's stupid. What did you want him to say? That despite the fact we just lost against a Sun Belt conference team at home that we're definitely going to go on the road and beat our SEC rival by three touchdowns?

From my perspective, he answered the question the way he's answered every question since he's taken the Louisville helm. With honesty. We've lost four straight to UK, they've had continuity with coaching and recruiting over the last 6 seasons while UofL has experienced turmoil and decline.

The goal is to catch up to them. Then leapfrog them. So am I mad that Charlie Strong won't guarantee a blowout victory over our rival in his second year of a rebuilding project? No.

Greg Scruggs clearly pissed on whatever fire the reporters were trying to stoke when he took the podium next. When asked about it Scruggs said...

The proof is in the pudding. We haven't beaten them in four years. Coach is calling it how he sees it. He's been honest since he got here.

 Q: Is he wrong? 

I'll never say my coach was wrong.

Wah wahnn. So you're telling me there's no guarantee of victory to write about, nor is there a story about discord between roster and coach? I guess we gotta find a new story.

Charlie Strong isn't a Rex Ryan. He shouldn't be a Rex Ryan. We don't need or want a Rex Ryan.

We need a coach with both feet squarely in the real world. Or more specifically, on the real field, teaching his players the game of football.

I don't know if we can beat UK either. But Charlie Strong's realism has me feeling more optimism for some reason.

FIU takes its win in stride

Glad we could help you out, but the joke's on you! We're not that good!

Perspective

Rivalry Week got off to a terribly tragic start for Mr. Red. A friend of mine died far far too young in an accident on Saturday. And he was one of the most passionate UK fans I ever knew.

The game itself seems so silly at the moment. I'll continue to argue passionately against the dastardly Cats, because he got a kick out of it, he read the blog. His love for UK sports was deep and pure, but it included respecting the love that another can have for his own team. Even a dirty Card.

We'll cover the game, even if my trademark and legendary humor isn't full throttle. But I'll do so knowing I'd gladly lose to UK by 50 for the next 100 years if it meant a brilliant young life could be returned to us.

Rest in peace, Will.