theHoff's Completely Irrational Derby Thoughts, Part I:

(Note: theHoff is a regular contributor to Cardinal Laws)

I'll start by stating the obvious: I know nothing. Ask my friends. I believe Mr. Red actually takes some sort of pleasure out of letting me air my ill-informed opinions. Or maybe it's that my off-base thoughts make him feel smarter. Hey, Carson had McMahon, whatever. Anyway, we decided that we would try to pay Derby some extra attention around CL, so here I am.

First Disclaimer. I rarely cash a ticket. I get close often. I drink beer and make irrational bets. I often talk myself out of the obvious in hopes of a bigger win. Greed isn't a good gambling vice to have, especially before you even MAKE the bet. In other words, I have a standing invite to Churchill Downs. Hell, they should be rolling out the red carpet for me. Instead, I gladly fork over $40 and walk my dumbass straight to the windows. The last Derby ticket that I cashed was War Emblem in '02. That wouldn't be too bad if I had made only one bet each Derby, but the truth is I didn't. I probably have about 6-10 different bets going for Derby. So no, my win percentage isn't the best. Basically all I'm saying is don't listen to anything I have to say when it comes to your money. If I am right.... let's just say I'll be the first to let you know.

Some thoughts in no particular order.

Archarcharch- The third highest in earnings, he caught my eye before the Arkansas soley based on his name. Trust me, I'm an Architect. The last Arkansas Derby winner to hit the Derby was Smarty Jones in 2004. His speed and distance have both been on the up in the past three graded stakes. I like horses that are on a steady incline in terms of performance at increasing distances. John Court scares me a little on him simply because he hasn't had a Derby winner, but we can say that for a lot of jocks in the race. Being in the money for 5 of his 6 starts is enough for me to want to throw a few his way.

Nehro- Ran Second to Arch.... Nehro has been on the uptick as well. He has jumped in class and speed successfully over his past 3 races. From what I can tell he's been closing out very strong, which if he can find an opening is such a large field could be dangerous. He's got the bloodlines with the distance. His poppa is Mineshaft, and grandfather is 1992 Horse of the Year A.P. Indy. I've liked most of Asmussen's horses the past couple Derbys. If he can settle in somewhere in the middle and have room to move around the 1/2 pole we might be looking at a winner.

That's all for now. I will have some more horses tomorrow.

Peace!

#137!!!