Quote of the Day II

"Once a kid commits, you back off and respect his decision. At least that's the way I always looked at it."

--Denny Crum today, on reports that Calipari is continuing to recruit Louisville commit Elisha Justice

Pitino: "I've been out this year more recruiting, than any time in my life."

Follow the link for two minute video of Pitino talking about "bumps in life," his contract extension, recruiting and next year.

Key quotes:

- "If there ever comes a day where I don't have the energy to recruit against the likes of some of these great recruiters out there, if I don't have the energy to do these four individual instructions today, then regardless of [inaudible], I'd step away from it. But I do have boundless energy now, and I do have strong desire..."

- "The one thing we want to improve on more than anything else is that we want to get back to being a great defensive team... We have to change our defense, we have to play more man-to-man... we weren't gifted athletically [this year]."

- "Probably the biggest thing we have to do is we've got to make Peyton Siva into a great point guard."

- "The guys really overachieved this year, and I'm not knocking the talent when I say that."

Quote of the Day

"Can't one guy tackle a running back?!?"

-an exasperated Charlie Strong in practice, perhaps realizing the extent of the rebuilding job ahead of him

You betcha!

Wager accepted, Mr. Red. And now that it's on, I just want to note how foolish a financial transaction this is on your part -- strapped as you are for cash -- because this is a bet I will win going away. Originally, I did not intend to write such a full-throated defense. But after rereading my analysis and watching a few of the highlight reels once more, I am doubly confident future events will declare me prophetic, and your position misguided. In fact, let's up the ante: If Kyle Kuric doesn't start in the home opener next season, I'll depart the city, high-tail it out of Louisville, and settle somewhere up north. Sayonora Derby City. "It's happening here," no longer. Kiss my Cardinal ass goodbye.

Why so cocky, you ask? First, it is easy enough to debunk the rationale applied by Mr. Red that Kuric simply is unacceptable at small forward and that incoming freshman Justin Coleman deserves the nod instead. No argument here that Kuric ideally is better suited at shooting guard. And Mr. Red and I both agree (in sharp disagreement with the Card Chronicle poster that Red mentions) that Jared Swopshire at small forward is a nonstarter. But I don't see what you gain immediately by replacing Kuric in the lineup with Coleman. Both are athletic. Both have major hops. Both can rebound (I know Kuric rebounds, and I assume that Coleman can too). Both can hit the three. But Kuric will be a junior; Coleman, promising as he is, will be an inexperienced freshman. So what gives? I initially suspected Mr. Red's gripe was that Kuric was too short to play small forward at 6 foot 4. So, logically, Kuric should be replaced by Coleman, who is -- wait for it -- 6 foot 4. If this is the criteria, what we really need to be talking about is how Preston Knowles holds down the starting spot at shooting guard, tipping the scale as he does at all of 6 foot 1.

Of course, height doesn't count for everything. Knowles will be a senior, Kuric a junior, and Coleman only a freshman. Experience is not a perfect predictor of a season of effectiveness (see Smith, Jerry), but it provides a jumping off point. Furthermore, looking at Pitino's record for starting freshman players in their first game, history suggests that he goes with the upperclassmen over the talented freshmen phenoms whenever possible. Did Francisco Garcia start in his first game? Nope, he came off the bench. Taquan Dean? Nada. Earl Clark? Hell no, he rode the pine until only late in his freshman year. Terrence Williams did start his first game as a freshman -- the season after our Final Four Team, when the departure of Garcia and Ellis Myles had left our forward cupboard bear. Edgar Sosa started his first freshman game too... alongside Will Scott! (and over Andre McGee), obviously some non-serious tinkering going on there. I doubt Pitino will be horsing around when Louisville opens its new palace next fall. Instead, look for Pitino to salute Kuric's gritty style and also to satisfy the home crowd, whose collective memory of Kuric's performance during the Freedom Hall Finale will still be fresh on their minds.

Third, it's worth acknowledging that the only opinion that makes the difference in this wager is Pitino's. (alert the athletic department: he'll want to know the pressure he's under) Here's what Pitino said about Kuric during his postseason analysis on his blog:

*Kyle Kuric- He will cherish that Syracuse game for the rest of his life. Good
athlete who must improve going left and develop a consistent jump shot. He has a
tendency to fall back and look at the ball instead of the rim on his jumper.
These are easy things to fix. He runs and jumps well. Kyle has many areas that
with hard work, will take a major step forward. He will battle to start at the
small wing position.

Easy things to fix... runs and jumps well... major step forward... will battle to start at the small wing position. I don't know yet what are Pitino's initial thoughts on Coleman. But it seems obvious to me who Ricky has in mind for the 3 spot next year. Does that guarantee it's the right move? No. Do I agree it is the right move? Yes. Does it make me the early favorite to win this bet and make Mr. Red eat his words? Absolutely.

Fourth: while this wasn't Mr. Red's point, I want to push back against this idea suggested by the Card Chronicle poster, that guys who are role players early in their career never turn into valuable players later. While the blogger is correct in suggesting that the occurrence is hardly typical (that's what makes it great when it does happen), what he seems to be really suggesting is that substantial improvement from any of our current players is unexpected and not possible. Weird thing is, in the same breath, he mentions the poster child for self-improvement over the course of his career: Larry O'Bannon. Hardly recruited out of high school and unheralded in his first few years in college (sound familiar?), O'Bannon averaged 5 and 2 points in his freshman and sophomore seasons respectively, then averaged 10 and 15 points his junior and senior years. Is Kyle Kuric, or any of our other guys, really so different? Is it outside the realm of possibility that Kuric will build next year on an unexpectedly strong sophomore season? I'm not guaranteeing Kuric to be the next O'Bannon, but since when did we get so cynical about these guys?

In sum, I think it is likely that Pitino goes with experience over hype (though let's hope the hype is well-deserved!), the known over the unknown, Kuric over Coleman. If it's the wrong move, Justin Coleman will earn his way into the starting lineup soon enough. But firing up the lights at the new arena for the first time, Pitino is more likely to give Kuric the honor. If nothing else, Kuric probably earned it for the importance of what he did against Syracuse, a game that will go down in Cardinal lore. Yes, I am a self-professed "Kuric-lover": there's no "uncomfortable" about it. However, Kyle Kuric starting at small forward next season is a solid enough bet and likely enough outcome that I can already suggest, with confidence, to you Mr. Red, that you go ahead and start fundraising that $13.99 needed to purchase my case of Select. And we both know how advertisement-less blogs don't pay very much, so you'd better start your efforts early. Cards fans: if at any home football games next fall, amidst the cheer and banter of tailgating and in the shadows of the new expansion, you happen upon a "Cardinal Laws" bake sale stationed adjacent to the ticket gates, kindly consider patronizing your local blogger.

Justice in jeopardy?

Some interesting chess is being played over Cardinal commit Elisha Justice. It's been a cause celebre for Matt Jones at KSR for awhile, but now there seems growing smoke around the Justice-to-the-Cats rumors, and it's time to investigate whether there's any fire.

It may seem to be a lot of fuss over a 5'10'' walk-on who recently had scholarship offers from only Eastern Kentucky and Jacksonville University. But as you can see in the end video, the newly crowned Mr. Basketball isn't your average walk-on. What he lacks in overall athleticism he more than makes up for in basketball instincts, ball handling skills, and a silky shooting touch. This tournament showed that heady players, even without blazing speed, are worth their weight in gold in March.

So, it's not surprising that UK is interested. He's good, and there's more than a little toddler-like jealously, some "I want it because you want it" at play. And with the MASS exodus of players from this year UK team, they'll have scholarships to burn, and can afford to take a chance. Despite the best efforts of UK fans pretending that everything is fine, that this is all part of Cal's plan, there's no way that this level of defection was ever contemplated. There's a very real possibility they will only return 4 players to the team next year.

So, the point is, though UK fans will be loathe to betray their recently recaptured "swagger", behind the scenes I'm fairly certain there will be some grumbling and disenchantment with the way things are shaping up, perpetual rebuilding and complaints about youth. One way to placate the discontented would be to snatch away a homegrown hero away from a rival, a sharpshooter from the hills of eastern Kentucky, especially one of the, umm, paler variety, to add some pluck to go along with the glitz of the next crop of one-and-doners.

And yes, I'm aware that some of this may just be posturing to get the Cards to burn a scholarship. Rick Pitino has made no secret of the fact that he's eyeing a monster recruiting class in 2011. Rest assured, he'll think long and hard before handing out another precious scholly.

I'll defer to his judgement, but I'd welcome bringing him aboard on scholarship. Getting him for free was just too good to be true, he's too good a player. Give him the spot that may be reserved for Gorgui Sy Dieng. The Cards are chock full of post-players at the moment (Samuels-Jennings-Buckles-Goode-Van Treese). As much as I look forward to a top-class in 2011, I also want to be good next year, and think we can be. We need another guard, especially one as deadly from behind the arc as Justice.

It's another situation of trying not to out-think yourself. If you see a player you like, you take the sure thing and offer him a scholarship. The other variables will work themselves out down the road. As you can see below, Justice is worth fighting for.

  

Reflecting on the point

Looking back, is it really all that surprising that this past year's team never functioned at the "team" level? Sosa at point just wasn't natural. Was never destined to work. Never produced team ball. Consensus seems to have emerged since the end of the season that Pitino should have played Siva at point all year long, as it would have been a better long-term investment and would have allowed Sosa to play at the two. That's not my take: I think given Siva's lack of strength and size and experience, that would indeed have been a better long-term investment, but at the expense of a few victories during a year that we needed every victory we had to make the tournament. Any year we can help it, no season should be surrendered to rebuilding if there's even the slight chance to go all-out competitive. So despite the fact that I was, at times, enamored with the possibility, I wouldn't say that I have joined the ranks of those questioning the fact that Pitino didn't permanently move Sosa to the two. Either way, that controversy is mitigated next year, and I think we can look forward to the development of a fluent offense, with the potential to become truly dynamic if Siva can cut down on turnovers.

So appropriate...so, so appropriate

Here's a hilarious picture Edgar Sosa tweeted earlier of what happened to his car while on the way to Kroger with teammate Chris Brickley.

Let the jokes begin!

* Couldn't have happened in the passing lane, Sosa doesn't pass.

* Jared Swopshire tightened the lugs right before. Kid's just not strong enough for the Big East.

* We could have won the South region, but Sosa didn't trust this piece of shit to make it to Indianapolis.

* Peyton Siva is more of a true driver, he'd be unpacking groceries right now.

* Sosa just doesn't make his wheels better.

* Rick Bozich is furiously banging out 2000 words on the mercurial nature of Sosa's driving record.

The Rick Pitino Machine

(Written while considering my options for how best to respond to Mr. Red's undignified challenge against me...)

Rick Pitino has been successful at Louisville. One disappointing season does not negate the fact that we are only one year removed from our last Elite Eight appearance (disappointing as that season was compared to our expectations, it nonetheless was an accomplished season), and that in the last five years this coach has taken us to two Elite Eights and a Final Four. The number of coaches who have fared better in that time span can be counted on one hand.

For all his floor-coaching oddities, Pitino should not be taken for granted (and judging by the contract extension the athletic department has just granted him, this is something that U of L's athletic board understand). Floor coaching was, and never will be, his strength. But Pitino has shown enough times (though not this season) that the overall system -- the emphasis on conditioning, the exclusive focus (if not always execution) on defense, the endless barrage of three-pointers, and yes, the mind games he plays -- it all, somehow, works. Even if you conclude that our second Elite Eight squad underachieved overall by not reaching the Final Four, Pitino's 2005 team that did make it to the Final Four was, in my opinion, a squad of over-achievers (and so maybe that team is representative of his best coaching). I would also say that the first Elite Eight squad, with less mature versions of T-Will and Earl Clark, just about met their potential; i.e. they did not under-achieve.

So Pitino's system does work, and it has worked at Louisville and has produced results recently. Based on this last season, the program is in obvious need for course corrections. Mr. Red already has pointed out some of the most critical needs; rightly so. But (and I am speaking in terms of fan enthusiasm) it would be foolish to junk the system as a whole -- one that has consistently produced results -- because of this past season viewed in isolation and (maybe more to the point) because of some pressure felt down the road.

Where you goin'? No where..

Rick Pitino is ours, complete with all the good and bad that entails. Today he signed a 4-year extension to his contract, he'll average $2.5 mil a season. For the record, I have no problem with this, but results need to start matching the bill. And most importantly, the job rumors need to STOP.

I've said it before, but Pitino belongs to Louisville now, regardless of the animosity that Rupp can muster towards him every other year. He's been here longer than he was at Lexington, and we've displayed more loyalty towards him. He needs to reciprocate.

We go to bat for you, Rick. We'll deliver a sold-out palace of a basketball arena very soon. You need to deliver Justin Coleman, a stellar 2011 class (Teague would be great), and sell our program and our city with every fiber of your coif.

Rick, you're talented and embattled from all sides. You fit this program perhaps better than you know. Welcome in, again.

Care for a wager?

Quick hits: Steve Lavin has accepted the open St. John's position, disproving both Brandon Bender and Dickie V who suggested Rick Pitino would and could fill the spot. The star-power of the Big East coaching ranks continues to swell. That doesn't translate to tournament success, as this March has shown, but all signs point to our continued basking in the ESPN spotlight for the forseeable future.

Also, if you haven't picked up on the hints before, I'm sick of Dick Vitale and think his schtick grew stale about 6 seasons ago. When he started stoking the flames of the Pitino-to-St. Johns-fire, that was the last straw. Time for Dickie V to go, baby.

I also have a couple thoughts on Mr. Black's Position Prediction, because without a doubt that's the most interesting plot heading into next season. I think my colleague hit the nail on the head by positing that team chemistry is poised for vast improvement, with a true point guard at the helm, thinner ranks, and a year of learning what each is expected to do (and not to do) under his respective belt.

I do disagree with a couple of his placements, however. I side with a recent poster on CardChronicle and a point made recently, that for all his virtues, Kyle Kuric is not a Big East forward, small, power, soccer, or otherwise. He has a lot to offer the Cards, but Kyle needs to do so from the shooting guard position. I hope Coach Pitino tells him that his spot next season will be the strong-rebounding, strong-shooting, backup to guard Preston Knowles. Let him know what to work on and what to expect.

Here's some behind-the-blog info. Mr. Black has an uncomfortable man-crush on Kyle Kuric. Nevertheless, he is correct in his assessment that UofL's team became a group of "malfuctioning parts" as the season progressed. So it seems to me the first step in righting the ship is to put the parts into their correct place.

In my opinion, if Kyle Kuric is our starting small forward next season, we'll be in store for more frustration.

In fact, I'll be willing to bet that will not be the case. A case of beer, Mr. Black, that Kyle Kuric will not be the starting small forward for the University of Louisville Cardinals in the first regular season game in the new arena next season?

If I recall correctly, your drink of choice is Budweiser Select, is it not? You pu-uh-ansy.

Position prediction

Pitino's teams have to play well defensively to keep the game coming down to offensive Xs and Os, which we acknowledge is Pitino's weak point (more on that in a later post). Defense is the biggest question for next year: Pitino has already called attention to the need to improve on D, as has Mr. Red, though he has reached very different conclusions.

Nonetheless, it will be immensely helpful to have an offensive cast that doesn't play like they are mingling on the dance floor at a freshman mixer. And in fact, there is a lot of evidence to suggest that next year's ensemble will play far better team ball. The Cards won't resemble our 2008-09 Elite Eight team in terms of talent, but it won't look like this year's team with all of its malfunctioning parts either. You would have had to beat me with a club to convince me of this at the beginning of this past season, but it is clear now: we actually stand to gain at both guard positions.

(Edgar and Jerry... what can I say guys? Over the course of their careers they provided ample memories and critical contributions, but things did not work out well during their senior years. This was especially true of Jerry. For Sosa, he had great games, could put up the points, but toward the end, that began to signify the terrible team ball we were playing. It's sad, it's unfair, but it happened and now it's done. Godspeed.)

Position-wise:

- Siva showed flashes of brilliance (combined with many freshman mistakes) this year in running the point, distributing the ball, and making the offense work. With Siva running the show, we came as close as we ever did to playing team ball (which is not to say that very close). The only time Siva really looks for his shot is the three pointer at the top of the key, a shot he hit with more regularity as the season went on. He might even pass when driving to the basket a bit too often, but that balance will come with more experience. He absolutely must get stronger.

- Shooting guard is a bigger question mark. Knowles has to be that guy who can't miss mid-range jumpers. He has to step up his game as our senior leader. There's lots of reasons to think he will do so, but by no means is it guaranteed. He did not finish this past season with much confidence. He has to put that behind him. If his shooting woes continue into his senior year, I am going to start wondering what we are feeding our shooting guards.

- Small forward has lots of potential. I am less familiar with our recruits for next year, so for now I differ with Mr. Red and say that Kyle Kuric will take the reins. I see him possibly having a Larry O'Bannon type of career, if he can become more assertive offensively. Is that too optimistic? He can do great things... we all know that.

- Power forward is tough... the best scenario is that TJ satisfies Pitino, maybe carves out some role for himself on offense, but otherwise plays better defense. His mentality just has to get there. If it doesn't, Rakeem Buckles will have the chance to pick up where he left off his last game, when he was the only Cardinal to show up to the NCAA tournament. Or can we function with Marra holding down the four? Open question, more reason for doubt at the four.

- Center is Samardo. Samardo, Samardo, oh Samardo. He was the cornerstone of this team midseason, but after his thirty-five point performance it all fell apart. He has to improve his mentality. Not fall asleep on defense. Get tough, as Mr. Red has pointed out many times. Still, think about where he stood at the beginning of the year to where he is now. The only reason his late-season play was so disappointing is that he raised expectations so high during the year. Is there any reason to think he won't improve as much from his sophomore season to his junior, as he did from his freshman to his sophomore season?

Tell your boyfriend, if he says he's got beef, that I'm a vegetarian and Charlie Strong ain't effin' scared of him!

“He's a lot more after it than our previous coaches. Overall I think it's good for us. It'll push us to be disciplined, it will push us to be better players. As a team we're not complaining at all about it; it's just adjusting to it.”

--DT Greg Scruggs

My mind is still on the roundball, but I shouldn't neglect to comment on the sounds of spring football. I did not attend a practice, but my sources in attendance had encouraging news to report. I know Spring football is a hopeful time for everyone, and optimistic storylines are easy to find. But the reports I received weren't from cockeyed optimists like Billy Mumfrees, they're from jaded and miserable human beings, good friends of mine. And even they came away from these practices impressed.

Some words and phrases I heard tossed around when referencing Coach Strong were "demanding", "fair", "towering", "always pushing", "always teaching", "perfectionist" and "a mean sonofabitch". The one remark that was consistent to all witnesses was that he has an high profile at practices; players, assistants, and fans know where he is at all times. This is in stark contrast to Steve Kragthrope, who had the same demeanor in practice that I used to have at grade-school mixers.

We have no evidence yet that the Cards will win football games next season. But we do now have evidence that the hopes and platitudes heaped on Charlie Strong aren't merely illusions, the projected negative of all the disappointments of the Kragthorpe Era. We found the right guy.

Take a drive across Denny Crum Overpass today. Gaze at the expansion that's nearing-completion and looking impressive. Pass Jim Patterson Stadium where Dan McDonnell is quietly but deliberately going about building a baseball powerhouse, and then glance over at the Twin Spires, and think about the greatest day of the year and how it's only a month away. Spring is a good time to be a Louisvillian. 

Next Year

The rest of this week I will be joining Mr. Red in dissecting this past basketball season and what it means for next year. I am optimistic. I think our 2010-11 team is made up of the type of players that Cards fans could fall in love with, especially guys like Peyton Siva and Kyle Kuric. I think Samardo will continue to mature and get tougher. I pray that TJ will improve his mental focus and take his rightful place in the starting lineup; if he does not, Rakeem Buckles waits in the wings. If Knowles can become a senior leader, next year's team perhaps could be special. At the least, they will make MAJOR improvements from this year's team. The Cards will be capable of winning some critical Big East matchups and making a run in March. Even if things didn't come together in the tournament, with all but Knowles coming back the following year (assuming Samardo or no one else departs), depending some on recruiting, the Cards would be PRIMED for a very special squad in 2011-2012.

UK Hypocrisy Watch

I haven't commented on Big Blue's exit from the tourney because, as you can see from today's theme, I'm more concerned with the Cardinals getting better, and since we lost the head-to-head this year, we aren't exactly in a position to throw stones. But I can comment on hypocrisy. Roughly a year ago, here was KSR blogger Thomas Beisner's take on UofL's tournament outlook after they drew a #1 seed...

If the Filthy Cards don’t cakewalk to the Final Four, then it should be considered a complete and utter disaster.

I'm no math wiz, but since this year's UK team had roughly twice as much NBA talent as that Louisville squad, one can only imagine the adjectives that Beisner must be searching for to describe this year's UK exit.

Pare it down

Depth is one thing, but subbing every 20 seconds for no real purpose or strategy is quite another. The Cards rotation was simply out of control for most of the season, to the benefit of no one. Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see why you don't stick with your five best players, subbing only when someone needs a breather or is in foul trouble. Let them develop chemistry, let them work out the kinks. In the Cal loss, it was pretty apparent that Pitino was shuffling the lineup every minute trying to catch lightning in a bottle, another Kuric-20 point wave that would carry us to victory. Again, not a recipe for hanging banners.

Siva-Knowles-Coleman-Buckles-Samuels. Sharphead as 6th man. Stick with it and don't overthink it. Simplicity is a virtue.

A little thing called strategery

After the season ended Pitino gave us another headscratcher...

We had to play differently this year to win, and we did it. We accomplished it, and the players deserve a lot of credit for doing that.

Speaking only from recollection, that just didn't seem to be the case. In fact, for most of the season it seemed to be the opposite, Pitino stubbornly sticking to his system and trying to fit a square into a circle (also what our 3-point shooting looked like).

Two things in particular. Sticking with full-court pressure (despite what he says, we used it quite often) needs to be reevaluated. It was revolutionary in the past, but against quality opponents with several players that can handle the ball, it does more harm than good. The amount of points you get from turnovers is negated by the amount you give up from being out of position when it's broken. The "wearing down" meme is just a myth, anyone that's ever played ball knows that playing defense is more exhausting than offense. And it's also a recipe for picking up cheap fouls.

Two, our half-court offense of setting high-screens to clear space for guards to create was doing nothing, because we lacked the guards to create (except for Siva). It resulted in repetitive displays of poor 3-point shooting, and forcing inside to Samuels regardless of if he were in good position. That, and the backdoor alleyoop play to Kuric that worked twice and then never again, that ladies and gentleman, was UofL offense 2009-10, whoohoo!!

Change, or do what you do better

I watched the Cal loss again. I'm not a glutton for punishment, but I had a lot of time and energy invested in the season, and I needed more closure than was provided in that 40-minute blur. And you know what, it was a little cathartic. The Cards simply were not a very good team, and as Eric Crawford aptly noted, we were getting worse.

There were many things missing for this team to be good, things we knew from the beginning; most notably, unselfish passing and accurrate shooting. At the end of the season, the Cards were spinning out-of-control, playing one-on-one basketball and shooting clanks. In some ways it's remarkable that they continued to inspire hope again...and again....and again, despite failing almost every chemistry test a team can have.

I agree that singling out individuals is pointless and piling on. There was individual heart, but no greater team dynamic. At times the players looked as confused as the rest of us. To help end the confusion, here's some topics that I believe need to be addressed in the off season...

* Stay!...Stay!...Good boy
First things first, the Cards need to learn who will be wearing Cardinal uniforms next year. I strongly doubt that all our underclassmen will return, I imagine that two, perhaps even three, may seek transfers. Additionally, the coaching staff needs to solidify the committment of Justin Coleman, perhaps the most underreported 5-star signing I can recall. Explosiveness at the wing position was sorely lacking this year; Coleman could be the missing ingredient next season. Pitino has an infamous history of being burned and spurned by recruits in every way possible.

* Brain Drain
It's fair to wonder whether the constant exodus of quality assistant coaches like Kevin Willard and Mick Cronin and Richard Pitino have finally caught up to the Cards. Assistants handle a large chunk of gameplanning and individual instruction. Both were poor this season.

Almost without exception, our players do not improve their skill sets. Can you remember the last time a post-player displayed a new move, or a guard flashed a midrange jump shot he'd been working on, anyone's free throw percentage jumping 10 points? By and large our guys finish their UofL careers the same players they were when they entered. Since Pitino is a strong recruiter, we've been able to stay competitive, but it's not a recipe for hanging banners. Rick needs to take a hard look around the locker room and evaluate which among his staff is truly earning his paycheck. If Walter McCarty's contribution to the team is just a big body to use in scrimmages, we need to bring in someone who can get the job done.

* A little thing called strategery
I just realized this post is running really long, and since we all have the attention spans of gnats, check back throughout the day for more thoughts in this vein.